Tensions between India and Pakistan

Approximate read time: 10 minutes

On 17 July 2025, the House of Lords will consider the following question for short debate:

Lord Hussain (Liberal Democrat) to ask His Majesty’s Government what representations they have made to the governments of India and Pakistan to bring about peace between the two countries, including with regard to Kashmir and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

1. Recent hostilities between the two countries

On 22 April 2025, gunmen attacked tourists in Pahalgam, a popular destination in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing 26 people.^[1] The attack led to weeks of tensions between India and Pakistan, with India blaming Pakistan-based insurgent groups for the attack, an allegation Pakistan disputed. Those tensions erupted into conflict between 6 and 10 May 2025. India and Pakistan conducted a series of military strikes which saw both countries strike deep into the territory of the other and civilians and soldiers killed along the line of control (LoC)—the boundary at which control of Kashmir is divided.^[2] Following reported international mediation, a ceasefire was declared on 10 May 2025.^[3]

The conflict was the latest development in a series of limited skirmishes and large-scale wars between India and Pakistan over control of Kashmir. Currently, both India and Pakistan administer parts of Kashmir, though both claim the wider region should be theirs (China has also laid claim to parts of north eastern Kashmir, further complicating the situation).^[4]

However, the scale of the most recent conflict took many international observers by surprise, leading to fears of future further escalation between two countries which both possess nuclear weapons. Diya Ashtakala at the Center for Strategic and International Studies observed:

The crisis between the two nuclear-armed countries indicates how rapidly tensions can escalate to dangerous levels. The intensity of the conflict exceeded that of past episodes, with several rounds of retaliation that undermined strategic stability in South Asia. This is also the first time India and Pakistan have engaged in drone warfare in their rivalry, indicating a new era of technological conflict in the region.^[5]

Similarly, Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said the conflict was an “unsettling reminder” of the volatile relationship between the two countries and the most intense use of force between India and Pakistan since the 1971 war.^[6] Kugelman also noted how close the conflict came to sensitive sites in both countries, including nuclear command and control installations:

In this year’s clash, India carried out multiple air strikes in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistan’s Punjab province, prompting Pakistan to respond with its own strikes. Each side sent missiles and unmanned drones deep into the other’s territory, leading to several strikes on sensitive sites—including an Indian missile attack that targeted the Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, which is located close to Pakistani command and control centres that oversee the country’s nuclear weapons.^[7]

Kugelman also noted how the prevalence of misinformation over the conflict risked exacerbating tensions still further.^[8]

2. Indus Waters Treaty and Simla Agreement

As part of its initial response to the Pahalgam attack, India closed its border with Pakistan, stopping bilateral trade, and unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. The treaty was signed in 1960 to regulate the management of the Indus River basin, which is important for supplying both countries with water for irrigation and hydropower.^[9] Under the terms of the agreement, India controlled three eastern Himalayan rivers—the Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas—while Pakistan took control of most of the three western rivers—the Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus. The treaty also established the India-Pakistan Indus Commission, intended to resolve any problems. India and Pakistan have disputed several projects on the Indus and its tributaries in recent years, yet the current conflict is the first time the treaty itself has been compromised since it was signed. There are also fears the move will exacerbate challenges already posed to the river basin by climate change.^[10]

Pakistan responded to India’s moves by also closing its border and stopping trade. It also threatened to suspend all bilateral treaties with India, including the Simla Agreement. Signed in 1972, the agreement is a key foundation of India-Pakistan relations, governing the line of control and outlining commitments to resolve disputes peacefully.^[11]

Despite the ceasefire agreement, at the time of writing these threats appear to remain in place. In comments reported by Al Jazeera on 22 June 2025, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah reportedly said that India would “never” restore the Indus Waters Treaty and the water flowing there would be diverted for internal use.^[12] Pakistan has previously suggested that any such moves, which it argues would breach the terms of the treaty, would constitute an “act of war”.^[13]

On the Simla Agreement, Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has reportedly said its provisions “had no value” and that the “sanctity” of the agreement had been broken.^[14] However, according to comments made by senior Pakistani officials on 5 June 2025, no formal decision has been taken on abrogating the agreement by the Pakistani government.

Despite these comments, some analysts such as Shuja Nawaz at the US-based Atlantic Council argue that mediation on the Indus Waters Treaty, and talks to update it to take account of new issues such as climate change, alongside measures to tackle extremism and boost trade, could be a key tool to deescalate tensions and prevent future conflicts.^[15]

3. Response from the UK government and other international actors

The UK government and other international actors such as the US authorities were reportedly active diplomatically during the conflict in attempts to de-escalate the situation and secure a cessation in hostilities.^[16]

UK ministers also reiterated the established position that it is for India and Pakistan to find a long-term solution to the future of Kashmir:

The long-standing position of the UK is that it is for India and Pakistan to find a lasting resolution to the situation in Kashmir, taking into account the wishes of the Kashmiri people. It is not for the UK to prescribe a solution.^[17]

Following the declaration of the ceasefire, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the task now was to make sure it was “enduring” and “lasting”.^[18] Hamish Falconer, a parliamentary under secretary of state at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, also noted in answer to a parliamentary question that Foreign Secretary David Lammy had visited both countries to continue diplomatic efforts:

The agreement to cease further military action reached on 10 May was hugely welcome. Risks remain and it is important that steps are taken to build regional stability. The foreign secretary visited Islamabad on 16 May and Delhi on 7 June and continues to engage with his counterparts in both countries.^[19]

On the Indus Waters Treaty, ministers have said all parties need to ensure the long-term future of the Indus River system:

It is critical for all actors and international partners to work to ensure the long-term sustainability of the Indus River system. The UK government stands ready to offer its support to India and Pakistan in their efforts to ensure the sustainable and equitable management of the Indus River system in the face of a changing climate.^[20]

4. Read more

• House of Commons Library, ‘Kashmir: Renewed India-Pakistan tensions’, 16 May 2025
• Congressional Research Service, ‘India-Pakistan conflict in spring 2025’, 13 May 2025
• Farzana Shaikh, ‘Rising tensions resurface Pakistan’s credibility problem—and India’s backfiring policy on Kashmir’, Chatham House, updated 6 June 2025

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Cover image by Kyle Glenn on Unpsplash.