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The House of Lords is scheduled to debate the following motion on 11 December 2025:

Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts (Conservative) to move that this House takes note of the Common Good Foundation and Centre for Policy Studies report ‘Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow’, published in July 2025, and of the implications of projected population growth for the UK’s demographic future.

The Common Good Foundation is a registered charity directed by Lord Glasman (Labour).[1] In addition, the Earl of Lindsay (Conservative) serves as a trustee.[2]

1. Common Good Foundation report

The Common Good Foundation’s report, entitled ‘Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow: Studies of population pressure and prosperity’ and authored by Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts, presents statistics, commentary and essays from other contributors on UK demographic change.[3] It was published in July 2025.

The report primarily focuses on immigration numbers and policy as the context for demographic change in the UK. The report contains sections on:

  • UK population growth over the last 50 years and projections for the future
  • views on potential pressures due to population growth
  • analysis of a public opinion poll carried out by YouGov
  • case studies of the demographic situation in the Netherlands, Denmark and Japan

The report argued that population growth and other demographic changes due to migration could bring “very special challenges to the UK”, including increasing political tensions and rising popularity for more “extreme” political parties.[4] It did note the government had published a new immigration white paper in May 2025, but was not convinced this would be truly effective at dealing with the issue.[5] The immigration white paper cited was:

Overall, the report recommended a “twin-track approach” for dealing with the issue, made up of:

[…] a new responsibility on government to face up to the serious consequences arising from demographic change; at the same time, the creation of a new body that would provide a commentary on the government’s stated policy objectives, to undertake research into demographic issues, and to provide an open transparent forum to reassure the public that these challenges were not being overlooked.[6]

2. Office for National Statistics projections

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) January 2025 population projections stated:

Over the 10 years between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the population of the UK is projected to increase by 4.9 million (7.3%) from an estimated 67.6 million to 72.5 million; this increase is projected to arise from net migration of 4.9 million compared with 6.8 million births and 6.8 million deaths.

The population projections for the UK are based on an assumption of long-term net international migration of 340,000 per year from year ending mid-2028 onwards; there is always uncertainty in estimates and projections of migration, meaning actual levels of future migration and the resulting population may be higher or lower than assumed in these projections.[7]

By 2047, the ONS estimated the UK’s population could be 76.6 million.

The ONS published the following graph of how the population and demographic changes may look.

Figure 1. Age structure of the UK population, mid-2022 and mid-2032

Graph showing the Age structure of the UK population, mid-2022 and mid-2032, male and female
(Office for National Statistics, ‘National population projections: 2022-based’, 28 January 2025)

The Government Actuary’s Department has published guidance on the ONS statistics, summarising some of the key points on population projections as follows:

  • a population increase: the UK population is projected to increase from an estimated 67.6 million in mid-2022 to 72.5 million in mid-2032 and 76.6 million in mid-2047
  • an ageing population: the number of people aged 85 years and over is projected to almost double in the next 25 years, from 1.7 million in 2022 to 3.3 million by 2047
  • an increased old-age-dependency ratio: for every 1,000 people of working age, there will be 302 people of pensionable age by mid-2047, up from 278 in mid-2022
  • greater population growth than previously projected: with 5.1 million more people in the UK population by mid-2045 (76.1 million), compared to the previous 2020-based projections (71.0 million)[8]

It also said by mid-2032 the number of:

  • children is projected to decrease by 0.8 million (-6.4%), from 12.4 million to 11.6 million
  • working-age people is projected to increase by 4.1 million (9.4%), from 43.2 million to 47.3 million
  • people of pensionable age is projected to increase by 1.7 million (13.8%), from 12.0 million to 13.7 million[9]

It noted most of this would be driven by migration, with birth rates and death rates projected at 6.8 million each. It also noted a projected long-term decrease in fertility rates.

The ONS has also published:

3. Read more

Image by Benjamin Elliott on Unsplash

References

  1. Common Good Foundation, ‘Our people’, accessed 8 December 2025. Return to text
  2. As above; and Charity Commission, ‘Common Good Foundation (Charity number: 1163668)’, accessed 8 December 2025. Return to text
  3. Common Good Foundation, ‘Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow: Studies of population pressure and prosperity’, July 2025. Return to text
  4. As above, p 117. Return to text
  5. As above, p 28. Return to text
  6. Common Good Foundation, ‘Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow: Studies of population pressure and prosperity’, July 2025, p 115. Return to text
  7. Office for National Statistics, ‘National population projections: 2022-based’, 28 January 2025. Return to text
  8. Government Actuary’s Department, ‘2022-based population projections: A GAD technical bulletin’, 3 July 2025. Return to text
  9. As above. Return to text