Table of contents

Approximate read time: 25 minutes

The House of Lords is scheduled to debate the following government-sponsored motion on 4 December 2025:

Lord Livermore (Labour) to move that this House takes note of the autumn budget 2025.

Lord Livermore is a minister serving in the role of financial secretary to the Treasury.

1. Economic context ahead of the budget

The growth rate of the UK economy has averaged around 1.5% since mid-2024, when measured by comparing gross domestic product (GDP) each quarter with the same quarter the year before. However, GDP growth has slowed so far in 2025.[1]

Figure 1. Annual change in GDP compared with the same quarter one year before, %

Figure 1. Annual change in GDP compared with the same quarter one year before, %

Figure 2. Quarterly change in GDP compared with the previous quarter, %

Figure 2. Quarterly change in GDP compared with the previous quarter, %

Meanwhile inflation has steadily risen over a similar period measured on a monthly basis in terms of the percentage change on a year earlier, from a low of 1.7% in September 2024 to a post-election peak of 3.8% in July, August and September 2025—before falling back slightly to 3.6% in October 2025.[2] However, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee said in a report published following its November 2025 meeting that inflation was “judged to have peaked” and was projected to slow to 3.2% by March 2026.[3]

Figure 3. Consumer prices index (CPI), % change on a year earlier

Figure 3. Consumer prices index (CPI), % change on a year earlier

The following briefings provide further information on the UK’s economic and fiscal context ahead of the budget, including on government borrowing and employment:

2. Budget statement and summary of announcements

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered her second budget in the House of Commons on 26 November 2025.[4] HM Treasury published the budget document, entitled ‘Budget 2025: Strong foundations, secure future’, and a collection of supporting documents and supplementary documents, including a collection of tax-related documents, following the chancellor’s statement.

Outlining the government’s approach to the budget at the beginning of her statement, the chancellor said:

I said that there would be no return to austerity, and I meant it. This budget will maintain investment in our economy and in our national health service. I said that I would cut the cost of living, and I meant it. This budget will bring down inflation and provide immediate relief for families. I said that I would cut debt and borrowing, and I meant it. Because of this budget, borrowing will fall as a share of GDP in every year of this forecast. Our net financial debt will be lower at the end of the forecast than it is today, and I will more than double the headroom against our stability rule to £21.7bn, meeting our stability rule, and meeting it a year early. These are my choices—not austerity, not borrowing, not turning a blind eye to unfairness. My choices are a budget for fair taxes, strong public services and a stable economy.[5]

Overall, the chancellor’s tax policy decisions set out in the budget were forecast to raise £26.6bn by 2030/31.[6]

2.1 Main revenue-raising measures

The budget’s main revenue-raising measures included:

  • Freezing personal tax thresholds for both income tax and national insurance contributions (NICs) for employees and self-employed individuals for a further three years—from April 2028 through until April 2031. The measure is expected to raise over £23bn in total by 2030/31 (£3.4bn in 2028/29, £7.8bn in 2029/30, and £12.4bn in 2030/31).[7] Maintaining the secondary threshold for employer NICs over the same period is expected to raise an additional £1.8bn.[8]
  • Capping NICs relief on salary sacrifice into pension schemes to the first £2,000 of pension contributions per person from 2029. The measure is expected to raise £4.7bn in 2029/30 and £2.6bn in 2030/31. The government said 74% of basic rate taxpayers, and their employers, currently using salary sacrifice would be unaffected by the change.[9]
  • Increasing tax on dividend income by two percentage points at the ordinary and upper rate from April 2026, raising around £5.2bn over the period to 2030/31.[10]
  • Increasing tax on property income and savings income by two percentage points at the basic, higher and additional rates from April 2027, with both measures raising around £1.5bn each over the period to 2030/31.[11]
  • Reducing capital gains tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025, raising £3.7bn by 2030/31.[12]
  • Increasing gambling levies, including remote gaming duty to 40% from April 2026 and introducing a new remote betting rate at 25% (excluding self-service betting terminals, spread betting, pool betting and UK horseracing) from April 2027. The government will also abolish bingo duty from April 2026. Together the measures are expected to raise over £5bn over the five years from 2026/27 to 2030/31.[13]
  • Introducing electric vehicle excise duty (eVED), a new mileage-based charge for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid cars, from April 2028. The government said eVED would not initially apply to vans, buses, motorcycles, coaches and HGVs. It added an average electric vehicle driver would pay around £240 per year in eVED, raising £1.1bn in 2028/29, £1.4bn in 2029/30 and £1.9bn in 2030/31.[14]
  • Introducing a high value council tax surcharge in England from April 2028 on residential properties valued at or over £2mn. The new flat-rate, annual charge would start at £2,500, rising to £7,500 for properties valued over £5mn. The charge would be collected by local authorities and be levied on owners rather than occupiers. The government expects the charge to raise around £400mn each year from 2028/29 inclusive.[15]

Other revenue-raising measures included freezing the student loans plan 2 repayment threshold for three years from April 2027, raising £1.4bn by 2030/31; reforming the customs treatment of low value imports from March 2029, raising over £1bn by 2030/31; and introducing VAT at the standard rate on advance payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and insurance premium tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from July 2026, raising around £1bn by 2030/31.[16]

The following briefing provides a more detailed summary of revenue-raising measures announced:

2.2 Spending decisions and other measures

The budget’s main spending decisions and other measures included:

  • Removing the two-child limit in the child element of universal credit from April 2026, costing around £2.4bn in 2026/27 rising to £3.2bn in 2030/31. The government estimates the measure will lift 450,000 children out of poverty.[17]
  • Increasing the national living wage (NLW) by 4.1% to £12.71 per hour for eligible workers aged 21 and over. The government said the measure represents an increase of £900 to the gross annual earnings of a full-time worker on the NLW and estimates the measure will benefit around 2.4 million low-paid workers in total.[18] The national minimum wage for 18 to 20-year-olds will also increase by 8.5% to £10.85 per hour and for 16 to 17-year-olds and apprentices by 6.0% to £8.00 per hour.
  • Introducing a cash limit of £12,000 within the overall annual limit of £20,000 for individual savings accounts (ISAs). The limit will not apply to savers over the age of 65.[19]
  • Changes to fuel duty, including cancelling the planned uprating for 2026/27; extending the 5p cut in rates to 31 August 2026, then increasing the duty by 1p from 1 September 2026, 2p from 1 December 2026, and 2p from 1 March 2027, costing £2.4bn in 2026/27 and falling to around £900mn per year thereafter.[20]
  • Not proceeding with reforms to eligibility for personal independence payment (PIP) announced at the spring statement, at a cost of around £5.3bn by 2030/31.[21]
  • Maintaining the £35,000 taxable income threshold for winter fuel payment payable to eligible pensioners for the rest of the parliament, costing £1.3bn per year by 2030/31.[22]
  • Increasing eligibility for the enterprise management incentives (EMI) scheme to allow scale-ups, as well as start-ups, to access the scheme from April 2026, costing around £700 per year by 2030/31.[23]
  • Reducing household energy bills by around £150 on average in Great Britain from April 2026 through changes to the renewables obligation and the energy company obligation.[24]

Other measures included freezing rail fares in England for one year from March 2026, costing £145mn in 2026/27; and freezing NHS prescription charges in England for one year from April 2026, costing £15mn.[25]

The following briefing provides a more detailed summary of revenue-raising measures announced:

2.3 Comment on forecast performance against fiscal rules

The Labour government published a revised draft charter of responsibility containing new “non-negotiable” fiscal rules alongside the 2024 autumn budget.[26] The 2024 budget document defined these as:

  • Stability rule: to move the current budget into balance, so day-to-day spending is met by revenues, and the government will only borrow for investment.
  • Investment rule: to reduce net financial debt (public sector net financial liabilities) as a proportion of GDP. This rule keeps debt on a sustainable path while allowing the step change needed in investment, by capturing not just the debt that government owes, but also financial assets that are expected to generate future returns.[27]

Commenting on the UK’s expected performance against these rules in her 2025 budget statement, the chancellor said:

My fiscal rules will get borrowing down while supporting investment: the stability rule—that day-to-day expenditure must be met through tax receipts—and the investment rule, which allows me to increase investment while getting debt on a downward path. Those fiscal rules are non-negotiable. I met them at the budget last year, I met them in the spring and I have met them today.

While the current budget balance is in deficit by £28.8bn in 2026/27 and £4.6bn in 2027/28, it moves into a surplus of £3.9bn in 2028/29, £21.7bn in 2029/30 and £24.6bn in 2030/31—more than doubling our headroom against the stability rule and meeting that rule a year early, too. Our net financial debt is 83.3% in 2026/27, 83.6% in 2027/28, 83.7% in 2028/29, falling to 83.0% in 2029/30 and 82.2% in 2030/31. I said we would cut the debt and we are, with debt down by the end of the forecast.[28]

The forecast £21.7bn of ‘headroom’ against the stability rule target represents an increase on the £9.9bn of headroom forecast at the spring statement in March 2025.[29]

Ms Reeves added she would “follow the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund by assessing the fiscal rules just once a year at the budget”.[30]

3. Economic and fiscal forecasts

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) formally published its latest ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’, an independent analysis of the UK’s economic and fiscal situation, after the chancellor concluded her statement.[31]

(The OBR had inadvertently made this document available via its website before Ms Reeves’ statement. The OBR apologised for the “technical error” and said it had “initiated an investigation into how this happened”.[32] OBR Chair Richard Hughes subsequently wrote to both the chancellor and Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the House of Commons Treasury Committee, to offer his “sincere apology” for the error and explain the investigation would be overseen by Baroness Hogg (Crossbench), chair of the OBR’s oversight board.[33])

The report’s overview read as follows:

  • Real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5% on average over the forecast, 0.3 percentage points slower than we projected in March [2025], due to lower underlying productivity growth. But cumulative real wage growth and inflation over the next two years are forecast to be around three-quarters and half a percentage point higher than in March respectively. This means that total growth in nominal GDP over the forecast is only around 1 percentage point lower than in March and is more tax rich, thanks to a larger share accruing to labour income and consumption. This, combined with frozen personal tax thresholds, boosts pre-measures tax receipts by amounts rising to £16bn by 2029/30 relative to our March forecast. But pre-measures spending is also higher in every year and by £22bn in 2029/30 due to higher spending by local authorities and on welfare and debt interest. The net result is a modest medium-term deterioration in the pre-measures fiscal outlook, with borrowing £17bn higher this year but only £6bn higher in 2029/30 compared to our March forecast.
  • Against this backdrop, budget policies increase spending in every year and by £11bn in 2029/30, primarily to pay for the summer reversals to welfare cuts and lift the two-child limit in universal credit. The budget also raises taxes by amounts rising to £26bn in 2029/30, through freezing personal tax thresholds and a host of smaller measures, and brings the tax take to an all-time high of 38% of GDP in 2030/31. The net impact of budget spending and tax policies increases borrowing by £5bn on average over the next three years but then reduces it by £13bn on average in the following two.
  • Taking forecast and policy changes together, borrowing is projected to fall from 4.5% of GDP in 2025/26 to 1.9% of GDP in 2030/31. Debt rises as a share of GDP from 95% of GDP this year and ends the decade at 96% of GDP, which is 2 percentage points higher than projected in March and twice the debt level of the average advanced economy. The current balance target is met in 2029/30 with a margin that fell from £10bn in the March forecast, to £4bn in the pre-measures forecast, but is then boosted to £22bn by budget policies. This is close to the £21bn average absolute revision in the fourth year of our pre-measures forecast between fiscal events, and around three-quarters of the £29bn average margin set aside by previous chancellors. But it is only around two-fifths of the median £54bn difference between our forecast for borrowing and final outturn four years hence. It therefore remains a small margin compared to the uncertainties around our economy forecast, including the outlook for productivity, interest rates, equity prices, and earnings growth. It is also small by comparison to the wider risks around our fiscal forecast, which include risks from the uncertain yield from an array of complex tax changes, and pressures on welfare, health, education, asylum, defence, and local authority budgets.[34]

4. Reaction to the budget

4.1 Political reaction

Opening the first day of debate on budget resolutions in the House of Commons immediately after the chancellor had delivered her statement, Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch described the budget as a “total humiliation”.[35] She continued:

Last year, the chancellor put up taxes by £40bn—the biggest tax raid in British history. She promised that she would not be back for more. She swore that it was a one-off. She told everyone that from now on, there would be stability and she would pay for everything with growth. Today, she has broken every single one of those promises. If she had any decency, she would resign. At the last budget, she said she was proud to be the country’s first-ever female chancellor; after this budget, she will go down as the country’s worst-ever chancellor […]

Today the chancellor has announced a new tax raid of £26bn, and Labour members were all cheering. Household income is down. Spending policies in this budget increase borrowing in every year. That smorgasbord of misery we just heard from her can be summed up in one sentence: Labour is hiking taxes to pay for welfare. This is a budget for “Benefits Street”, paid for by working people.[36]

Speaking after Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the House of Commons Treasury Committee, Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, opened his remarks by saying he looked forward to her committee challenging the government on the details of the budget.[37] He continued:

This government were elected on a promise to tackle the cost of living and grow the economy, and this is the second budget in which they have failed to do either. For millions of people struggling with higher bills, all this budget really offers is higher taxes.

The OBR sets it out in black and white: disposable income and living standards are down thanks to this budget. Surely the chancellor should have learned from her first failed budget that we cannot tax our way to growth. Under the Conservatives, the UK’s tax burden reached its highest level since 1948 and it hit the economy, yet under this budget the tax burden will hit an all-time high.

Sir Ed instead called on the government to negotiate a “new trade deal with Europe—a major new deal to cut the cost of living and grow our economy”.

Speaking on behalf of Reform UK, Richard Tice described the budget as a “car crash—the third car crash over which this chancellor has presided”. He continued:

The first was last year’s budget, which was so damaging to business confidence, to jobs, and to the farmers who provide the food for this great nation. The second was the run-up to this budget, with so many leaks. It was the hokey-cokey budget—in, out, shake it all about—which, again, was damaging to business confidence. The third car crash has, I fear, written off the engine of the British economy, because once again all the data, all the incentives, are bad.[38]

4.2 Other selected reaction

Thinktanks

In an initial response, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) described the budget as a “spend now, pay later” package of measures, with the chancellor “relying heavily on tax rises towards the back end of the parliament”.[39] It described the chancellor’s choice to increase her ‘headroom’ to around £22bn as a “sensible move for which the chancellor deserves credit”, though added that “relative to the uncertainties involved, it’s still not that large a buffer”. It added:

Taxes also went up, in part, to pay for additional discretionary spending—most notably on universal credit through the scrapping of the two-child limit, as well as welfare more generally due to U-turns earlier in the year. That’s a perfectly reasonable choice—but it is a choice. The key point, again, is that the tax rises are promised for the future, but the spending is coming sooner.

Turning to tax, the chancellor found a way to cobble together a sizeable package without increasing the main rates of national insurance contributions, VAT or income tax. The package was skewed towards raising more from those with high incomes. That’s also true of the largest single measure, a three-year extension to the freeze in personal tax thresholds which raises £8bn in 2029/30 and £13bn in 2030/31—though a 1 percentage point increase in all rates of income tax would have raised a similar amount while bringing in more from those at the very top. Because it includes a freeze in national insurance thresholds, it also breaches the government’s manifesto tax promise not to increase national insurance—as does the cap on salary sacrifice. And, as the chancellor acknowledged, it clearly represents a tax rise on working people. A range of other tax increases—on pension contributions, unearned income, business investments and capital gains—weaken incentives to save and invest.

Speaking the following day, IFS Director Helen Miller described the budget as a “borrow-to-spend budget in the short term, and a combination of a tax-and-spend and tax-and-bank-it budget in the medium term”.[40] She added:

The decision to increase her headroom, when she didn’t strictly need to, deserves credit. It means that it will require a larger shock to blow the chancellor off course. This in turn should mean that we can expect a period of greater stability and more muted policy speculation. And we really should all hope for that. The chancellor is also hoping to reduce policy volatility by removing the formal assessment of the fiscal rules in the spring—though the OBR will still be producing a forecast, and you won’t need to be an IFS-trained wonk to  be able to read the spreadsheet and work out if things are still on track.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said the budget “locks in a high-tax, high-debt steady state in a world of low productivity growth and higher interest rates”.[41] The institute welcomed the chancellor’s £22bn in headroom but described the “buffer” as “thin relative to the uncertainty around fiscal forecasts and the scale of potential shocks”. It added: “The risk of a further fiscal reset later in the parliament remains uncomfortably high”. It also said the budget’s “tax path is heavily back loaded, with around 90% of the revenue from new measures arriving in the second half of the forecast, close to the next election”.

Commenting on the day of the budget, the Resolution Foundation said the budget would “ease cost of living pressures with welcome support on energy bills and for larger families”. However, it added the “backloaded budget means tax rises and spending cuts are coming just before the next election”.[42] In further comment published the following day, the thinktank’s chief executive, Ruth Curtice, said:

The chancellor needed to clear three crucial hurdles in her budget—to ease cost of living pressures, tax smartly and repair the public finances.

The chancellor was front-footed—and front-loaded—on cost of living support. Over half a million larger families will get a major income boost next spring, while typical energy bills will be cut by around £130 annually for the next three years, though support then fades away.

Sensible tax reforms will also help to level up the tax treatment of income. But, ironically, sticking to her manifesto tax pledge has cost millions of low-to-middle earners, who would have been better off with their tax rates rising than their thresholds being frozen.

By more than doubling the headroom against her fiscal rules, the chancellor has taken steps to repair the public finances, too. But appearances can be deceiving. Debt is up and most of the fiscal repair job has been put on hold for three years.[43]

Ms Curtice added: “One hurdle that remains to be cleared is boosting growth—which has been downgraded by the OBR, along with the outlook for living standards”. She continued: “Until that challenge is taken on, we can expect plenty more bracing budgets”.

Responding to the budget on behalf of the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), the institute’s executive director, Harry Quilter-Pinner, said:

The chancellor has made good calls on gambling tax, taxing income from wealth and work more equally, a tax on high value properties and ending the two-child limit, which will pull 450,000 children out of poverty. She has also protected vital services from cuts and more than doubled fiscal headroom against her fiscal rules and cut bills, as IPPR has urged.

She faced a challenging fiscal context. On the back of an OBR downgrade, the government needed to stabilise public finances, drive higher and fairer economic growth, relieve pressure on working families, all while raising revenues to protect public services. This budget made real progress towards achieving these goals.

But after a decade of wage stagnation the move to cut energy bills must be just the start of action to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. We need a relentless war on bills if working people are to feel better by the end of the parliament.[44]

Speaking on behalf of the Institute of Economic Affairs, Director of Communications Callum Price described the budget as representing a “white flag in the battle for economic growth”.[45] He continued:

Instead of putting it front and centre of her plans, taking the necessary radical action to fix our tax system and strip back public spending to a sustainable level, she has instead prioritised keeping her backbenchers onside and doing her best to avoid painful headlines. The result is a mess of painful tax rises on working people, exactly the same people she pledged to protect, and the very people and businesses who drive economic growth.

Where there should be a real vision and tangible plan to return economic dynamism to Britain, deliver the growth that could end our doom loop and improve the livelihoods of every Briton, we have been given yet another record high tax burden being used to support yet further swelling of the state.

On behalf of the Centre for Policy Studies, Director Robert Colvile described the budget as “bad […] in every way”.[46] He continued:

Bad because it raises tax to post-war highs. Bad because it puts off difficult decisions until the final years of the forecast period. And bad because it avoids any attempt at reforming and simplifying the tax system, in favour of making it even more complicated and anti-growth.

For all the talk of a “smorgasbord” of measures, the heart of the budget was a perpetuation of the freezes to tax thresholds that Rachel Reeves promised not to extend—and indeed said would be an explicit breach of Labour’s manifesto.

At £66.6bn, the cumulative cost of the freeze to tax thresholds, since its introduction by the Conservatives in 2022/3, makes it the largest tax rise in the last 60 years, at least according to the OBR’s own calculations.

Trade unions and business groups

Trades Union Congress General Secretary Paul Nowak welcomed the budget as representing “urgent relief to millions of hard-pressed households up and down the country”.[47] He also said it would help rebuild public services, before adding:

Bringing down energy bills and taking action to make work pay will make a real difference to people struggling to get by. Scrapping the two-child benefit cap will lift hundreds of thousands of kids out of poverty. And new investment in young people, our public services and infrastructure is much needed.

The policy decisions announced today will disproportionately benefit those low and middle-income households at the sharp end—and tax increases will fall on the wealthiest.

Fourteen years of Conservative government took a wrecking ball to living standards—with pay packets squeezed, child poverty at crisis levels and vital public services left on their knees after years of cuts.

This government is starting to turn the page on that failed Tory era.

But fixing the mess that the Tories left will take time. We now need to see a relentless focus on affordability and making work pay beyond this budget.

That’s how you rebuild the country and show you’re on the side of working people.

Reacting to the budget on behalf of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the body’s chief executive, Rain Newton-Smith, said the chancellor’s “scattergun approach to tax risks leaving the economy stuck in neutral”.[48] She continued:

Adding national insurance to salary sacrifice pension contributions curtails savings and pushes up the cost of employment. Coming on top of the rise to the national living wage, increased employment costs make it even more expensive for employers to offer jobs to young people and jobseekers.

The government should be commended for protecting capital spending, boosting innovation, sticking with the corporate tax roadmap, and hiring the planning officers business asked for. But business will still rue a missed opportunity to be bold and press on with much needed tax reform, simplification and alignment of incentives to catalyse business investment and job creation.

With business investment and profitability weaker as a result of these decisions, the government must now double-down on leveraging the experience and expertise of enterprise to find the step-change in economic growth that has proven elusive.

Ms Newton-Smith added: “One of the biggest things the government can do right now is get round the table with business to find a landing zone on the Employment Rights Bill that works for everyone”.

Responding on behalf of the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), the federation’s policy chair, Tina McKenzie, said:

Today’s tax-raising budget shows the peril of a continuing economic doom loop—we must not be in the same place again next year, with more tax hikes to balance the books due to a lack of economic growth. The tax burden at a record high is the cost of failure to get growth and trim spending.

Hikes to dividend tax mean the government continues to make investing in your own business one of the least tax-friendly things you can do with your money. Plans to charge employers for supporting pension savings are a bad idea. The business rates measures will not help small firms and high streets nearly enough.

We need the government to follow this budget through with serious, pro-growth measures that restore the confidence small businesses need to grow, invest and hire.[49]

Ms McKenzie also said: “Sorting out the Employment Rights Bill, fixing the broken small business energy market and backing more people to start new businesses are all necessary measures we need to see action on immediately”.

On 27 November 2025 the government said agreement had been reached on the unfair dismissal elements of the Employment Rights Bill following a “series of constructive conversations between trade unions and business representatives”.[50] It explained these had “concluded that reducing the qualifying period for unfair dismissal from 24 months to six months”, instead of making unfair dismissal protections a day one entitlement as originally planned under an ambition set out in Labour’s manifesto, among other changes, was a “workable package”.[51] The TUC and CBI, on behalf of itself and other groups including the British Chambers of Commerce, Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development and FSB, welcomed the agreement.[52] The bill is next expected to be considered in the House of Commons on 8 December 2025.[53]

The following briefing provides a more detailed summary of reaction to the budget:

5. Read more

Image by Simon Walker/HM Treasury on Flickr.

References

  1. House of Commons Library, ‘The UK economy: A dashboard’, 14 November 2025 (see ‘GDP growth’ tab); and ‘Autumn budget 2025: Background briefing’, 20 November 2025, pp 9–10. See also: Office for National Statistics, ‘GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: July to September 2025’, 13 November 2025. Return to text
  2. House of Commons Library, ‘The UK economy: A dashboard’, 14 November 2025 (see ‘Inflation’ tab, showing % change on a year earlier); and ‘Autumn budget 2025: Background briefing’, 20 November 2025, pp 18–22. See also: Office for National Statistics, ‘Consumer price inflation, UK: October 2025’, 19 November 2025. Return to text
  3. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, ‘Monetary policy report: November 2025’, 6 November 2025, pp 4 and 10. Return to text
  4. HC Hansard, 26 November 2025, cols 384–99. Return to text
  5. HC Hansard, 26 November 2025, col 385. Return to text
  6. HM Treasury, ‘Budget 2025: Strong foundations, secure future’, 26 November 2025, HC 1492 of session 2024–26, p 95. Return to text
  7. As above, pp 34 and 91. Return to text
  8. As above, p 91. Return to text
  9. As above, pp 37 and 92. Return to text
  10. As above, pp 36 and 91. Return to text
  11. As above, pp 36 and 91–2. Return to text
  12. As above, pp 5 and 92. Return to text
  13. As above, pp 40–1 and 93. Return to text
  14. As above, pp 38 and 93. Return to text
  15. As above, pp 36–7 and 92. Return to text
  16. As above, pp 34, 49–50, 80, 88, 91 and 93. Return to text
  17. As above, pp 31 and 88. Return to text
  18. As above, pp 32 and 97. Return to text
  19. As above, p 119. Return to text
  20. As above, pp 29 and 87. Return to text
  21. As above, p 95. Return to text
  22. As above, pp 95 and 97. Return to text
  23. As above, pp 74 and 89. Return to text
  24. As above, pp 31 and 87. Return to text
  25. As above, pp 6 and 87–8. Return to text
  26. Labour Party, ‘Labour Party manifesto 2024’, June 2024, p 126; and HM Treasury, ‘Autumn budget 2024: Fixing the foundations to deliver change’, 30 October 2024, HC 295 of session 2024–26, p 2. These were later approved in the House of Commons on 29 January 2025: HC Hansard, 29 January 2025, cols 344–63; and HM Treasury, ‘Charter for budget responsibility: Autumn 2024’, 30 January 2025. Return to text
  27. HM Treasury, ‘Autumn budget 2024: Fixing the foundations to deliver change’, 30 October 2024, HC 295 of session 2024–26, p 2. Return to text
  28. HC Hansard, 26 November 2025, col 389. Return to text
  29. HM Treasury, ‘Spring statement 2025’, 26 March 2025, CP 1298, p 11. Return to text
  30. HC Hansard, 26 November 2025, col 389. Return to text
  31. Office for Budget Responsibility, ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’, 26 November 2025, CP 1439. Return to text
  32. Office for Budget Responsibility, ‘Notice regarding ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ being released today’, 26 November 2025. See also: BBC News, ‘OBR calls in cyber expert over botched release of budget analysis’, updated 27 November 2025. Return to text
  33. Office for Budget Responsibility, ‘Chair’s letters to the chancellor and chair of the Commons Treasury Committee’, 27 November 2025. Return to text
  34. Office for Budget Responsibility, ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’, 26 November 2025, CP 1439, p 5. Return to text
  35. HC Hansard, 26 November 2025, cols 400–87. Return to text
  36. HC Hansard, 26 November 2025, col 400. Return to text
  37. HC Hansard, 26 November 2025, col 409. Return to text
  38. HC Hansard, 26 November 2025, col 440. Return to text
  39. Institute for Fiscal Studies, ‘Autumn budget 2025: Initial response’, 26 November 2025. Return to text
  40. Institute for Fiscal Studies, ‘Autumn budget 2025: IFS analysis event’, accessed 28 November 2025. Return to text
  41. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, ‘2025 autumn budget reaction: A high-tax, high-debt steady state’, 26 November 2025. Return to text
  42. Resolution Foundation, ‘Budget will ease cost of living pressures next year—but backloads fiscal repair job to eve of next election’, 26 November 2025. Return to text
  43. Resolution Foundation, ‘Chancellor races ahead with cost of living support but huge tax rises and spending cuts loom’, 27 November 2025. Return to text
  44. Institute for Public Policy Research, ‘Budget fires starting gun on living standards and ending unfair tax advantages—but must be first shot in war on bills’, says IPPR’, 26 November 2025. See also: ‘‘Budget for Benefit Street’ claim refuted by numbers, reveals IPPR’, 27 November 2025. Return to text
  45. Institute of Economic Affairs, ‘Chancellor raises white flag on economic growth’, 26 November 2025. Return to text
  46. Centre for Policy Studies, ‘Budget ‘bad in every way’ says CPS’, 26 November 2025. See also: ‘Cost of hiring young workers rises by over £4,000, CPS analysis shows’, 28 November 2025. Return to text
  47. Trades Union Congress, ‘Budget will deliver “urgent relief” for millions of families and help rebuild public services’, 26 November 2025. Return to text
  48. Confederation of British Industry, ‘CBI responds to UK budget 2025’, 26 November 2025. Return to text
  49. Federation of Small Businesses, ‘Budget must be followed by serious, pro-growth measures, say small firms’, 26 November 2025. Return to text
  50. Department of Business and Trade, ‘An update on the Employment Rights Bill’, 27 November 2025. Return to text
  51. As above. See also: Labour Party, ‘Labour Party manifesto 2024’, June 2024, p 45. Return to text
  52. Trades Union Congress, ‘TUC responds to government update on Employment Rights Bill’, 27 November 2025; and Confederation of British Industry, ‘Joint statement: Employment rights amendment welcomed’, 27 November 2025. Return to text
  53. UK Parliament, ‘Employment Rights Bill: Stages’, accessed 28 November 2025. Return to text