Declining birth rates and population ageing: Impact and government response

Approximate read time: 17 minutes

On 4 June 2026, the House of Lords is scheduled to consider the following question for short debate:

Baroness Nargund (Labour) to ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the UK’s declining birth rates in an ageing population, and the impact of this demographic shift on the workforce, demand for public services and economic growth.

1.  Demographic trends

1.1 Fertility and live birth rates

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes annual data on births in England and Wales. In its latest statistical release, published on 27 May 2026, the ONS reported that the total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.39 children per woman in 2025, down from 1.41 in 2024.^[1]

The ONS also reported 585,396 live births in England and Wales in 2025, down from 594,677 in 2024 (1.6%).^[2] This was the lowest number of live births recorded since 1977.^[3]

The figures below show trends in fertility and live births in England and Wales from 1938 to 2025.

Figure 1. Total fertility rate, England and Wales, 1938 to 2025

Figure 2. Live birth counts, England and Wales, 1938 to 2025

The ONS also publishes national population projections. ONS projections published in April 2026 estimated that the number of children aged 0 to 15 would decline by 1.6 million (12.7%) between mid-2024 and mid-2034, from 12.6 million to 11.0 million. By mid-2049, the number is projected to fall by a further 2.1 million (16.3% below 2024 levels).

1.2 Population ageing

The ONS has projected sustained growth in the UK’s older population. In 2025, it reported that there were 1.7 million people aged 85 and over living in the UK in mid-2022 (2.5% of the population).^[4] In its latest statistical release, published in April 2026, the ONS stated that the number had increased to 1.75 million by mid-2024 (also comprising 2.5% of the population).^[5] The ONS estimated that this age group is projected to increase to 3.6 million people (representing 4.9% of the population). The ONS attributed this trend partly to larger cohorts born during the 1960s reaching older age and to increases in life expectancy.

The number of people of pensionable age is projected to increase from 12.4 million in mid-2024 to 14.2 million by mid-2034, an increase of 14.6%.^[6] By mid-2049, this group is projected to reach 15.3 million, accounting for 23.7% of the population. These projections include the planned rise in the state pension age to 67 years for men and women. According to the ONS, the proportion of people of pensionable age is projected to increase more than any other life stage group between mid-2024 and mid-2049. The following figure details the projections for all life stages from mid-2024 to mid-2049.

Figure 3. UK population by life stage, mid-2024, mid-2034, and mid-2049 (millions)

2.  Factors associated with declining fertility

Researchers have identified a range of factors associated with declining fertility, including higher childcare and housing costs, delayed parenthood, financial uncertainty, and increased participation in higher education and employment.

The ONS reported that the average age of parents continued to increase in 2024, reaching 31.0 years for mothers and 33.9 years for fathers.^[7] The ONS stated that this represented an increase of 2 years for mothers (29.0) and just under 2 years for fathers (32.1) since 2004.^[8]

In an article for the iPaper, published in March 2025, Geeta Nargund (now Baroness Nargund), the lead consultant in reproductive medicine at St George’s University Hospitals Foundation Trust, identified “economic barriers, cultural shifts and changing societal norms” as factors influencing decisions about parenthood.^[9] She highlighted childcare costs, housing affordability in urban areas, limited access to fertility treatment and a “lack” of family-friendly support, such as parental leave and workplace policies, as “key issues”.

Similarly, in an article for the Economics Observatory, published in February 2026, Professor Ann Berrington (University of Southampton) and Professor Hill Kulu (University of St Andrews) identified several reasons contributing to falling birth rates.^[10] These included changes in gender roles and preferences, housing constraints, and rising economic and education costs. Reflecting on empirical evidence from the ‘generations and gender’ surveys, they said that “most people retain a firm desire to have children, but that this desire is not being matched by actual behaviour”.^[11]

3.  Potential impacts of demographic changes

Demographic change is projected to affect the workforce, economic growth and public services through changes in labour supply, productivity, public spending and the balance between working-age and pension-age populations.

3.1 Workforce

The UK’s declining birth rate and ageing population are expected to affect the size and composition of the workforce.^[12] Fewer young people are projected to enter the workforce, while more people are expected to live to older ages.

In its latest population projections, published in April 2026, the ONS projected that the old age dependency ratio (the number of people of pensionable age per 1,000 working-age people) will increase from 280 in mid-2024 to 329 by mid-2049.^[13]

Commentators have argued that lower birth rates could reduce the future supply of workers. Speaking to the Telegraph in August 2025 about the potential impact of fertility rates falling, Martin Beck, the chief economist at WPI Strategy, stated that “fewer births today mean a smaller pool of workers in future”.^[14] He argued that this “risks labour shortages and exacerbating the dilemma faced by governments in weighing the economic benefits of more immigration versus the social and political costs”.

Similarly, the Resolution Foundation argued in January 2026 that the UK may be entering “a new era when deaths exceed births by an ever-widening margin”.^[15] It noted that any population growth that the UK would experience was “set to come from international net migration”, although acknowledged that the latest data had suggested that this was “plummeting” to approximately 200,000 annually. The organisation said this suggested the UK was in the “middle of a slow but consequential transition” that could result in fewer people of working age and an economy that “urgently needs new firms and new jobs to replace the old”.

3.2 Economic growth and public finances

Analysis suggests that population ageing could affect economic growth by reducing the proportion of the population in work and increasing pressure on public finances.

In 2022, the Institute for Fiscal Studies argued that population ageing will “significantly affect the UK’s labour market” because older adults are “much less likely to work”.^[16] It noted that because economic output is largely generated by those in work, “output per capita, and therefore the overall size of the economy, will be lower when less of the population is in work”.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera in September 2025, Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec, said that lower birth rates may temporarily reduce demand for some public services, such as the NHS and schools.^[17] However, he argued that a continued decline in the ratio of working-age people to non-working-age people could place “more pressure on the public finances and, in all likelihood, taxation”.

3.3 Public services

Population ageing is projected to increase demand for health, social care and pensions, while falling birth rates are expected to reduce demand for school places.

3.3.1 Health and social care

Population ageing is expected to increase demand for health and social care.

In its 2024 fiscal risks and sustainability report, the OBR stated that the average age and health of the population were “two of a number of factors driving public spending on health”. ^[18] It noted that over the past 30 years, total health expenditure in the UK had risen from below 6 percent to over 11 percent of GDP. It also stated that, based on an updated analysis of the main components of health spending, its baseline projection was for real public health spending to grow by an average of 3.1% annually over the next 50 years.

In the findings of his independent review of the state of the NHS in England, published in 2024, Lord Darzi of Denham (non-affiliated) described population ageing as “the most significant driver of increased healthcare needs”, particularly because of long-term conditions such as breathing difficulties and diabetes.^[19]

In a report published in February 2026, the charity Skills for Care estimated that England’s population aged 65 and over will increase from 11.5 million to 14.5 million between 2024/25 and 2040, requiring approximately 470,000 additional social care posts to meet demand by 2040 (a 27% increase).^[20]

3.3.2 Pensions

Population ageing is projected to increase state pension expenditure.

The OBR described the state pension as the largest component of welfare spending and projected that spending on the state pension would increase by 2.7% of GDP between 2028/29 and 2073/74, driven by population ageing and the cost of the triple-lock policy.^[21]

A report published by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) in March 2026 argued that lower birth rates and rising life expectancy could place “unsustainable pressure” on the pension system.^[22] Analysing the ONS’ 2022 national population projections and statistics on the old age dependency ratio, it suggested that maintaining current worker-to-pensioner ratios could require the state pension age to “rise steadily” over the coming decades, potentially resulting in children in school aged 8 and under in 2026 working until aged 75.

3.3.3 Education

Declining birth rates are expected to reduce pupil numbers and affect school funding and capacity.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated in December 2025 that the number of children in the UK was expected to fall by 800,000 (approximately 7%) between 2024 and 2035, which “mainly reflected reduced fertility levels”.^[23] It described demographic change as “one of the biggest challenges facing the education sector” because fewer pupils reduced demand for “schools, teachers, wider staff or other inputs”.

In April 2026, the Nuffield Foundation said that falling pupil numbers can “squeeze budgets”, potentially affecting educational quality, as schools “often respond by cutting staff”.^[24] It highlighted research by the Sutton Trust, published in the same month, which reported reductions in the numbers of teaching assistants (71%), SEND support (43%) and sport and other extracurricular activities (32%).^[25] The Nuffield Foundation argued that “when support is withdrawn”, pupils who are already disadvantaged “are the ones most affected” and that this would “make it even harder” for the government to close the attainment gap between disadvantaged children and their peers.^[26]

4. House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee inquiry into preparing for an ageing society, 2025–26

4.1 Inquiry

The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee launched an inquiry into preparing for an ageing society in March 2025.^[27] In an article announcing the inquiry, the committee highlighted record-low fertility rates in England and Wales and rising life expectancy. It warned that a growing proportion of older people requiring health and social care, alongside a smaller working-age population, could present “growing economic challenges”. It also stated that these challenges were expected to have “wide-ranging implications for the economy and society”.

The committee published its report, ‘Preparing for an ageing society’, in December 2025.^[28] It argued that the UK was an “ageing society”, with population ageing “driven by both declining fertility and rising life expectancy”.^[29] It further stated that:

These trends combined will give rise to significant economic and fiscal challenges; absent substantial improvements in productivity growth—to levels not seen in the UK since before the financial crisis—or in workforce participation there will be significant downward pressure on government finances and on living standards, driven by a significant rise in the old-age dependency ratio.

The committee argued that the government would need to spend more “using a shrinking tax base, with the risk that the long-term debt burden becomes unsustainable”.^[30] It said that increasing the state pension age or relying on higher levels of immigration would not, on their own, resolve these pressures. Instead, it identified increasing workforce participation among people in their mid-50s to mid-60s as providing “the greatest improvement in fiscal outlook”. It also emphasised that keeping older workers in employment would strengthen the government’s fiscal position and reduce risks of rising pensioner poverty. Additionally, it highlighted the importance of encouraging more young people to enter the workforce, describing this as a “priority”.

The committee identified age discrimination, caring responsibilities and pressures in social care as barriers to workforce participation.^[31] It concluded that it was “not convinced” that population ageing was “a priority or being taken at all seriously”, calling on the government to “act now”.

The committee’s recommendations included:

• Supporting employment among people in their mid-50s to mid-60s: The committee stated that the government should outline measures to help older workers remain in, or return to, work and assess their impact on economic activity and public finances. It also called on the government to examine “tax and other incentives—including eliminating any cliff edges in public service pensions”.^[32]
• Establishing a Cabinet sub-committee on ageing: The committee argued that successive governments had “failed to focus on the issues raised by an ageing society” and called for a dedicated Cabinet sub-committee focused on ageing, chaired by the prime minister.^[33]
• Publishing a strategy statement on ageing: The committee said that a strategy statement would outline how the government plans to address the challenges of an ageing society “in a cohesive way”.^[34]
• Addressing the gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy: The committee expressed concern about this “growing gap” and called on the government to set out the policies it is using to reduce this gap and explain the outcomes it expects those policies to achieve.^[35]

4.2 Government response

The government published its response to the committee’s report in February 2026.^[36] The government acknowledged the importance of the topic and noted these were “challenges faced not only in the UK, but across advanced economies”.^[37] It also welcomed that people were living longer but stated that demographic changes would “inevitably bring new pressures, particularly for public services and the public finances, which governments must plan for responsibly”.

The government said its approach focused on three areas:

• Supporting people approaching, or above, state pension age: It reaffirmed its commitment “to ensuring that older people live with dignity and security” and stated that it was maintaining the triple-lock for the duration of the parliament, describing it as “one of the most generous state pension uprating mechanisms in the world”.^[38] It also highlighted the independent commission into adult social care led by Baroness Casey of Blackstock (Crossbench), arguing that it “forms part of our critical first steps towards delivering a national care service”.^[39]
• Preparing younger generations for retirement: It recognised the “need to ensure that working people today are able to achieve good retirement outcomes in the decades ahead” and highlighted the launch of the Pensions Commission led by Baroness Drake (Labour), Sir Ian Cheshire and Professor Nick Pearce to examine longer-term issues relating to pension “adequacy, fairness, and sustainability”.^[40] The government also said that it was “prioritising measures to support long-term growth”, including planning reforms, the Planning and Infrastructure Bill (now the Planning and Infrastructure Act 2025), development of the Oxford to Cambridge growth corridor, and support for the expansion of Heathrow Airport.
• Promoting intergenerational fairness: The government said that the independent state pension age review led by Dr Suzy Morrissey would “inform future decisions about how long people spend in work and in retirement as life expectancy continues to rise”.^[41]

The government also addressed the committee’s specific recommendations:

• Employment among people in their mid-50s to mid-60s: The government reaffirmed its ambition for an employment rate of 80%, stating that funding for employment support would increase to more than £3.75bn per year by 2028/29.^[42] It highlighted targeted Jobcentre support for older jobseekers, including work-coach assistance and the “midlife MOT” programme, allowing individuals to review finances, health and skills. It also noted that 56,000 people aged 50 and over had started sector-based work academy programmes.
• Cabinet sub-committee on ageing: The government said that it was committed to having “the right structures” in place and highlighted the creation of a “growth and living standards committee” to consider issues related to economic growth and living standards.^[43]
• Strategy statement on ageing: The government stated that it already takes a “strategic and cross-cutting approach” to ageing, with relevant policies incorporated across employment, health and social care, and pensions strategies.^[44]
• Healthy life expectancy: The government acknowledged “significant health inequalities”, describing life expectancy and healthy life expectancy as “varying widely across and between communities”.^[45] It reaffirmed its commitment to “halving the gap in healthy life expectancy between the richest and poorest” and highlighted the 10 Year Health Plan, stating that addressing health inequality was a “core focus” of the plan.

5.  Other government comment

Writing in the Daily Telegraph in June 2025, the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, described falling birth rates as “a trend which has worrying repercussions for society in the future”.^[46]

She said the government was responding by expanding childcare provision, increasing early-years support and improving access to family services. Ms Phillipson also highlighted the government’s planned expansion of childcare entitlements, increases to the early years pupil premium and funding rates for providers, and the creation of new school-based nurseries in areas with limited childcare provision.

6.  Read more

• Charlie McCurdy, ‘Bye bye baby: Assessing Britain’s falling birth rate since the early 2010s’, Resolution Foundation, April 2026
• House of Commons Library, ‘The implications of population ageing for social policy’, 16 September 2025
• Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology, ‘Impacts of birthrate decline‘, 20 May 2025

---

Photo by Rod Long on Unsplash